diff --git a/reports/traction/2026-08-01-traction.md b/reports/traction/2026-08-01-traction.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..ad8525d92 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/traction/2026-08-01-traction.md @@ -0,0 +1,191 @@ +# ArcKit Monthly Traction Report — 2026-08-01 + +> **Data source:** GitHub MCP server (`mcp__github__*` tools). +> **Data gaps flagged inline:** The GitHub MCP server does not expose the starred-at timestamp endpoint (`Accept: application/vnd.github.star+json`) or the fork-list endpoint. Sections 2–4 flag where historical bucketing or fork divergence could not be computed and state what CLI command would fill the gap. + +--- + +## 1. Headline Numbers + +| Metric | Value | Change vs Jul 20 report | +|--------|-------|-------------------------| +| Stars | **2,111** | +18 (+0.9%) | +| Forks | **263** | +9 | +| Watchers | **2,111** | +18 (GitHub equates to star count) | +| Open issues | **20** | +4 | +| Days since creation (2025-10-14) | **291 days** (~9.7 months) | — | +| Latest release | v6.7.5 (2026-07-28) | — | +| Last push | 2026-07-31 | — | + +--- + +## 2. Star Delta vs. Last 30 / 60 / 90 Days + +**Data gap:** The GitHub MCP tools do not expose the starred-at timestamp API. The only hard prior data point is the previous traction report (2026-07-20: 2,093 stars). + +| Window | Stars | Delta | Implied rate | +|--------|-------|-------|-------------| +| 2026-08-01 (today) | **2,111** | — | — | +| 2026-07-20 (prev report, 12 days ago) | 2,093 | **+18** | ~1.5 stars/day | +| 2026-05-01 (est., ~92 days ago) | ~1,700 est. | ~+411 est. | ~4.5/day post-trending est. | +| 2026-04-21 (end of trending event) | ~1,420 est. | — | — | +| 2026-04-16 (start of trending event) | ~93 est. | +1,327 in 6 days | **~221/day peak** | + +**Single-day spike flag:** No spike >50 stars detected in the Jul 20–Aug 1 window (+18 total over 12 days). The Apr 16–21 trending event remains the sole spike on record. + +*To compute exact 30/60/90-day deltas:* + +```bash +gh api repos/tractorjuice/arc-kit/stargazers \ + -H "Accept: application/vnd.github.star+json" \ + --paginate | jq '[.[] | .starred_at] | sort | reverse | .[0:200]' +``` + +--- + +## 3. Post-Trending Decay Curve + +The major trending event (2026-04-16 to 2026-04-21) peaked at **~221 stars/day**. Estimated current organic rate (Jul 20–Aug 1): **~1.5 stars/day** — a ~99% decline from peak, consistent with normal post-Trending long-tail decay. + +**ASCII sparkline — estimated stars/day for the last 30 days (Jul 2 – Aug 1)** + +```text +Day: Jul02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 Aug01 +Rate: ▄▄▄▄ ▃▃ ▃▃ ▂▂ ▂▂ ▂▂ ▂▂ ▁▁ ▁▁ ▁▁ ▁ + ~3/d ~2.5/d ~2/d ~1.5/d (measured) +``` + +*Note: bars Jul 2–19 are interpolated from the Apr 21→Jul 20 arc (+673 stars in 89 days ≈ 7.5/day avg over the full arc, weighted front-heavy). Jul 20–Aug 1 uses the measured +18 in 12 days.* + +**Assessment: Stabilised/decaying.** The rate has not re-spiked and appears to have settled near 1–2 stars/day. No secondary viral event is evidenced in commit, issue, or PR activity. The project is in organic long-tail mode. + +--- + +## 4. Fork Engagement + +| Metric | Value | Note | +|--------|-------|------| +| Total forks | **263** | +9 vs Jul 20 (12 days) | +| Forks with `ahead_by > 0` | **Not available** | Fork-list endpoint absent from MCP tools | +| Forks owned by Organizations | **Not available** | Same limitation | +| Forks with their own stars | **Not available** | Same limitation | +| **May 2026 baseline: forks with commits ahead** | **0** | Provided baseline | + +**⚠ ZERO-AHEAD BASELINE STATUS:** The 2026-05-01 baseline recorded **zero forks ahead of upstream**. This session cannot verify whether that has changed — the MCP server does not expose `GET /repos/.../forks`. No inbound PRs originating from a fork were detected in July issue/PR activity beyond the three external PRs already present in main (which came from personal fork branches). No evidence of divergent production deployments. + +*To verify programmatically:* + +```bash +gh api repos/tractorjuice/arc-kit/forks --paginate \ + | jq '.[] | {name: .full_name, stars: .stargazers_count, \ + owner_type: .owner.type}' \ + | jq -s 'sort_by(-.stars)' +``` + +--- + +## 5. Notable New Contributors / Stargazers (Last 30 Days) + +**Data gap:** Timestamped stargazer sampling requires the `Accept: application/vnd.github.star+json` endpoint which is unavailable via MCP tools. The section below reports contribution activity instead — a stronger engagement signal than passive starring. + +### External contributors active in July 2026 + +| User | PRs | Issues | Affiliation / Domain | Signal strength | +|------|-----|--------|---------------------|----------------| +| `terrygzhou` | 2 (1 open, 1 merged) | — | Prolific OSS contributor; also merged TOGAF ADM overlay Jun 30 | **High** — substantive feature PR open (#711) | +| `gtonic` (Tom Geiger) | 1 merged (#707) | 3 | Austrian EA/GovTech; de facto at-overlay domain lead | **High** — paired issues + PRs, proposing new commands | +| `anupamme` (Anupam Mediratta) | 1 merged (#703) | — | OSS security contributor | Medium — proactive CVE fix | +| `chrismckelt` | — | 2 | Power user; found doc-types registry gap + Wardley bug | Medium — substantive bug reports | +| `designlabdotcx` | — | 1 | End user | Low — install bug report | +| `pacharanero` | — | 1 | NHS Clinical Informatics; DCB0129 domain expert | Medium — accurate standards fix request | +| `johnfelipe` | — | 6 | LATAM enterprise architect; active ArcKit user on live project | Medium — power user, feature-request volume | + +*Full follower counts require individual profile API calls beyond what `search_users` returns. Notable affiliation: `pacharanero` is a known NHS open-source contributor; `gtonic`'s upside-down display name and Austrian law citation accuracy suggest domain expertise.* + +--- + +## 6. Issues & PRs Activity (Last 30 Days) + +### Issues (Jul 1 – Aug 1) + +| Metric | Count | +|--------|-------| +| Total issues opened | **28** | +| Opened by `tractorjuice` | ~15 | +| Opened by external users | **13** | +| Closed in period | **19** | +| Open issues remaining from July | 9 | +| External issue authors | **5 distinct users** | + +### Open backlog by label + +| Label | Open count | +|-------|-----------| +| `enhancement` | 9 | +| `help wanted` | 3 | +| `bug` | 3 | +| `question` | 2 | +| `architecture` | 2 | +| `research` | 2 | +| `security` / `priority:high` | 1 | + +### External issue authors (July) + +| User | Issues | Theme | +|------|--------|-------| +| `johnfelipe` | 6 | Eraser DSL, PlantUML rendering, multi-repo artifacts, sprint flow, audit output path | +| `gtonic` | 3 | at-overlay: Austrian BVergG procurement, InfoSiG classification, new barrierefreiheit command | +| `chrismckelt` | 2 | Doc-types registry (no GLOS code) + Wardley evolve-line bug | +| `designlabdotcx` | 1 | Homebrew Python install path regression | +| `pacharanero` | 1 | DCB0129 clinical-safety template fix | + +### PRs (Jul 1 – Aug 1) + +| Metric | Count | +|--------|-------| +| Total PRs opened | **50+** (API total_count: 76; 50 returned in page 1) | +| By `tractorjuice` | ~96% | +| External PR authors | **3** (`terrygzhou`, `gtonic`, `anupamme`) | +| External PRs merged | **3** (#704, #707, #703) | +| External PRs open | **1** (#711) | +| PRs closed without merge | 0 external, unknown maintainer count | + +### External PR detail (July) + +| # | Author | Title | Outcome | +|---|--------|-------|--------| +| #711 | `terrygzhou` | feat: bring your own LLM — openai-compatible endpoint, build command, local config wizard | **Open** (substantial feature) | +| #707 | `gtonic` | fix(at): correct Austrian overlay legal citations (NISG 2026, BVergG, DSG) + CODEOWNERS paths | Merged 2026-07-30 | +| #704 | `terrygzhou` | chore: gitignore HANDOFF.md | Merged 2026-07-29 | +| #703 | `anupamme` | fix: upgrade postcss to 8.5.18 (GHSA-r28c-9q8g-f849) | Merged 2026-07-30 | + +### Maintainer PR cadence (notable releases in July) + +| Release | Date | Highlights | +|---------|------|-----------| +| v6.7.5 | 2026-07-28 | Wardley evolve-line bug fix, contributors page update | +| v6.7.4 | 2026-07-28 | Provenance stamp Markdown fix, RELEASING.md repair | +| v6.7.3 | 2026-07-28 | Attribution + contributor credits | +| v6.7.2 | 2026-07-27 | docs/manifest.json reverted (revert of #683) | +| v6.7.1 | 2026-07-27 | Plugin namespace fixes, overlay command routing | +| v6.7.0 | 2026-07-27 | **`/arckit:repo-audit`** new command; guide parity enforcement | +| v6.6.0 | 2026-07-27 | Claude Code floor raised to v2.1.219; arckit-build wave fix | +| v6.5.0 | 2026-07-27 | Kimi Code CLI distribution format (arckit-kimi) shipped | +| v6.4.0 | 2026-07-25 | Kimi governance hooks, plugin manifest | +| v6.3.x | Jul 16 area | (previous period) NHS DUAA 2025 | + +--- + +## 7. Honest Read + +The "starred and forgot" to "actually using" conversion remains narrow but is measurably widening. Five distinct non-maintainer accounts contributed code or filed substantive domain-expert bug reports in July — the broadest single-month external participation since the April trending event. Three external PRs were merged and one significant feature PR (#711, BYOLLM support from `terrygzhou`) is open, which if landed would make ArcKit runtime-agnostic and meaningfully expand its addressable audience. + +Fork count grew from 254 to 263 (+9 in 12 days) but no fork-ahead evidence has emerged, and the zero-ahead baseline from May 2026 is likely still representative: most forks remain passive clones. The watcher metric is identical to stars on GitHub, so no independent watcher signal exists. Issue volume from non-maintainers is higher than prior months (13 external issues in July vs ~9 in the Jun 20–Jul 20 window per the previous report), with quality skewing toward domain-expert bug reports (`chrismckelt` finding registry gaps, `pacharanero` catching NHS clinical-safety errors) rather than generic "how does this work?" noise. + +The most concrete conversion signal is the emerging domain lead pattern: `gtonic` is now filing paired issues + PRs for the Austrian overlay without being asked, and `terrygzhou` has two merged contributions plus an open feature PR. The `johnfelipe` power-user signal remains at the feature-request tier (6 issues, 0 PRs) — watching whether that converts to a PR is the clearest leading indicator of deeper adoption. Organic star velocity (~1.5/day) is low but positive; re-spike potential would require a second trending or social amplification event, none of which is currently evidenced. + +--- + +*Generated: 2026-08-01 by automated monthly traction routine* +*Data source: GitHub MCP server (`mcp__github__*` tools)* +*Star timestamp data (Sections 2–3) and fork divergence (Section 4) require `gh` CLI raw API access — not available in this MCP session. Commands to fill those gaps are provided inline.*