skore-example-electricity-load/single_date_plot.py at main · probabl-ai/skore-example-electricity-load · GitHub

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import datetime

import plotly.graph_objects as go
import polars as pl

import electricity_load_forecasting as elf

# %%
import argparse
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
parser.add_argument('--quantile_strategy', default='tabicl')
args = parser.parse_args()

# %%

pred = elf.make_data_op(horizons=tuple(range(1, 25)), quantile_strategy=None)
env = elf.get_env()

split = pred.skb.train_test_split(environment=env)
new_date = elf.get_new_date()

learner = pred.skb.make_learner().fit(split["train"])
prediction = learner.predict({"start": new_date, "end": None})

# %%
history = elf.resample(elf.fetch_load_mw_history())
history_tail = history.filter(pl.col("time") > new_date - datetime.timedelta(days=8))

fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=history_tail["time"],
        y=history_tail["load_mw"],
        mode="lines+markers",
        line={"dash": "dash", "color": "gray"},
    )
)
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=prediction["time"],
        y=prediction["load_mw"],
        mode="lines+markers",
    )
)
fig.update_layout(height=700, showlegend=False)
fig.show(renderer="browser")
fig.write_html('example-mean.html')

# %%
pred = elf.make_data_op(
    horizons=tuple(range(1, 25)),
    quantile_strategy=args.quantile_strategy,
    quantiles=(0.05, 0.5, 0.95),
)
learner = pred.skb.make_learner().fit(split["train"])
prediction = learner.predict({"start": new_date, "end": None})

# %%

fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=history_tail["time"],
        y=history_tail["load_mw"],
        mode="lines+markers",
        line={"dash": "dash", "color": "gray"},
        name="historical data",
    )
)
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=prediction["time"],
        y=prediction["q_0.5"],
        mode="lines+markers",
        name="median prediction"
    )
)

fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
    x=prediction['time'],
    y=prediction['q_0.95'],
    mode='lines',
    line=dict(width=0),
    showlegend=False,
    hoverinfo='skip'
))

fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
    x=prediction['time'],
    y=prediction['q_0.05'],
    mode='lines',
    line=dict(width=0),
    fill='tonexty',
    fillcolor='rgba(0, 100, 250, 0.2)',
    showlegend=True,
    hoverinfo='skip',
    name='5% - 95% confidence interval'
))

fig.update_layout(height=700)
fig.show(renderer="browser")

# %%
fig.write_html(f'example-{args.quantile_strategy}-90.html')